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The U.S. dollar index fluctuates below the 100 mark, and Buffett announces his final letter

Wonderful introduction:

You don’t have to learn to be sad in your youth. What xmxyly.comes and goes is not worth the time. What I promised you, maybe it shouldn’t be a waste of time. Remember, the icy blue that stayed awake all night, is like the romance swallowed by purple jasmine, but the road is far away and the person has not returned. Where does the love stop?

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The U.S. dollar index fluctuates below the 100 mark, and Buffett announces his final letter." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On November 11, spot gold was trading around US$4,138 per ounce. Gold prices climbed nearly 3% on Monday, hitting the highest closing level in more than two weeks. The market's rising expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve drove demand for gold. U.S. crude oil was trading around US$60 per barrel. Oil prices ended modestly higher on Monday. The market showed a supply and demand game pattern. Tight supply of refined oil pushed up prices, while concerns about oversupply of crude oil limited gains.

The foreign exchange market showed a clear rebound in risk appetite on Monday, with risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar rising significantly, while safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen fell against the US dollar. This change is mainly due to the U.S. Senate advancing a bill to restart the federal government on Sunday, bringing hope of a breakthrough in the 40-day shutdown deadlock.

The Australian dollar rose 0.72% to US$0.6538 against the US dollar, with global stock markets rising simultaneously. Analysts pointed out that the market is looking forward to the changes in the political landscape that may be brought about by next year's mid-term elections, believing that the Republican Party's continued control of Congress will promote more pro-growth policies, which is good for risk assets.

The foreign exchange market also digests the policy signals of central banks of various countries. The market currently expects a 61% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December, but this expectation may fluctuate significantly following the release of employment data. Several Fed officials spoke on Monday, revealing internal divisions over further interest rate cuts, highlighting the policy challenges facing Chairman Jerome Powell.

The trend of the yen is also affected by Japan's domestic policies. Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae announced that he will set new fiscal targets, essentially diluting his xmxyly.commitment to fiscal consolidation. At the same time, a summary of the opinions of the Bank of Japan's October meeting showed that policymakers debated the possibility of raising interest rates in the near future, with some members suggesting waiting for more wage growth.data.

As the American Veterans Day holiday approaches. With the government shutdown likely to end, market focus will turn to the upcoming resumption of economic data, especially the non-farm payrolls report, which will provide clearer guidance on the path of monetary policy.

Asian Markets

Inflation expectations in New Zealand remain solid, while interest rate forecasts suggest the RBNZ's easing cycle is nearing an end.

The latest expectations survey from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand shows that average inflation expectations for the next year rose slightly from 2.37% to 2.39%. The two-year forecast remains unchanged at 2.28%. The long-term view is broadly stable, with the five-year outlook revised down to 2.22% and the 10-year indicator slightly raised to 2.18%, all of which are consistent with the Bank's 1-3% target midpoint.

Respondents now believe that following a 50 basis point cut in October, the official cash rate, currently at 2.50%, will end at 2.25% by the end of the year, meaning that only a further 25 basis point cut is needed before policy stabilizes. The OCR forecast for the year ahead fell sharply from 2.86% to 2.31%, indicating that market participants expect the RBNZ to remain on hold for much of 2026 as inflation trends closer to target and growth slows.

Australian consumer confidence jumped sharply in November, marking a clear break from years of pessimism. The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rose 12.8% month-on-month to 103.8, the first positive reading since early 2022 and the highest level in seven years, excluding a brief COVID-era surge. The surge was driven by a sharp improvement in views on the economy, with the 12-month and five-year outlook sub-indexes up 16.6% and 15.3% respectively, both now well above long-term averages.

Westpac said the results "draw a clearer line" amid long-term consumer pressures caused by high inflation, rising interest rates and rising tax burdens. The rebound likely reflects strong domestic momentum, particularly housing and consumer demand, as well as a more stable external backdrop. The recent easing of trade tensions between China and the United States and a new agreement between Australia and the United States on critical minerals have also boosted market sentiment.

What is truly surprising is that these positive forces have decisively outweighed lingering concerns about inflation and future interest rate settings, Westpac said. Data suggests households are regaining confidence in Australia's recovery prospects even as monetary policy remains tight, providing a fresh signal that consumer resilience could help support growth into 2026.

European Markets

Euro zone investor sentiment deteriorated again in November, exacerbating concerns that the euro zone economy remains stagnant. The Sentix investor confidence index fell sharply to -7.4 from -5.4 in October, below expectations of -3.9. The current situation index fell to -17.5 from -16.0. Expectations fell to 3.3 from 5.8.

Sentix said there were "few signs of an improvement in the autumn" and the euro zone "continues to languish with no signs of future momentum". The survey noted that the persistence of this pessimistic assessment indicates an ongoing contraction process, and as the economy still cannot escape the downturn, the path to 2026 appears to be "predetermined."

Nonetheless, there was one weak positive in the report: concerns about inflation have eased significantly. The Sentix Inflation Barometer rose 9 points to -11, indicating that investors believe the central bank is acknowledging weak growth conditions and may adjust policy accordingly. However, Sentix warned that ballooning government debt remains a structural problem, keeping the fiscal policy barometer at a deeply negative -32 and limiting how much refinancing conditions can actually fall.

U.S. Market

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that as part of a "prudent risk management approach," the Federal Open Market xmxyly.committee has appropriately cut policy rates by 50 basis points this year, noting that these adjustments provide "necessary insurance" to the labor market while keeping policy "moderately restrictive" to further curb inflation.

In an article published today, Daly raised the core question currently facing the Federal Reserve: Is further interest rate cuts needed? She argued that while policymakers must remain vigilant about inflation risks - learning from the 1970s and post-pandemic surges - they must also avoid overcorrecting and stifling growth.

“We don’t want to try so hard to avoid becoming the 1970s that we cut off the possibility of the 1990s,” she wrote, warning that focusing too much on the history of inflation could trade one mistake for another.

Daly stressed that getting the policy right requires an "open mind" and a careful assessment of the evidence on both sides of the debate.

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