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The market is showing conflicting signals, with the premium on 3-year U.S. bonds soaring

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The market is showing conflicting signals, and the 3-year U.S. bond premium has soared." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

Asian Market Trends

On Monday, as signs that the U.S. government may resume operations boosted market risk sentiment, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated below the 100 mark. As of now, the U.S. dollar is quoted at 99.63.

Overview of Foreign Exchange Market Fundamentals

US House Speaker Johnson expects the House of Representatives to resume session early this week. He said he will not xmxyly.commit to a vote on subsidies for the Affordable Care Act and hopes to hold a full house vote on the appropriation bill on Wednesday.

Senate Republican leader Thune said that an agreement has been finalized to ensure that the government shutdown-related agreement can pass the Senate on the morning of the 11th Beijing time.

San Francisco Fed President Daly: Policymakers need to remain open to further interest rate cuts; St. Louis Fed President Moussa Lambdon called for caution in cutting interest rates and predicted that the economy will rebound sharply in the first quarter of next year.

The United States has suspended the implementation of Section 301 investigations into China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year, including suspending the collection of port fees on relevant Chinese ships.

Foreign media said that Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the United States, and the tariff rate will be reduced to 15%.

Trump responded that he was negotiating an agreement with Switzerland to reduce tariffs, and the number was undetermined.

Trump: Close to a trade deal with India, which is very different from past deals.

Thailand says it will suspend border and prisoner of war agreements with Cambodia.

Summary of institutional views

Sweden's Nordea Bank: When U.S. bond rates stabilize, can euro zone yields maintain an independent upward trend?

EUR/USD is still in a consolidation phase similar to 2017 and 2020, waiting for the final round of upward movement. However, the current consolidation cycle has exceeded historical reference patterns, calling into question the sustainability of the current pattern. The sustainability of future trends will depend on whether the U.S. economic slowdown narrative can continue and whether Europe can demonstrate a more independent economic recovery momentum.

While the scarcity of data during the U.S. government shutdown may provide temporary support for the dollar, the core question is whether euro zone yields can maintain an independent upward trend when U.S. bond rates stabilize. Without this support, the euro/dollar will have limited room for further upside during the year, but the overall trend will still be a gradual strengthening of the euro rather than an overall strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

Based on this, we now xmxyly.compare the current consolidation phase with past cycles - similar upside followed by extended sideways patterns were seen in 2017, 2020 and 2023. At present, EUR/USD is most consistent with the longest consolidation period in 2023, whether in terms of duration or technical characteristics such as momentum, position layout, and stretch levels. What can also be observed from these historical patterns is that the longer the consolidation period lasts, the smaller the subsequent upward peak tends to be. This suggests that the next round of upside is likely to be relatively limited unless new macro catalysts emerge.

MONEX agency: Today's British salary data may..., the economy is already struggling

This week will usher in a number of British data updates, official labor market statistics and GDP data will be released. Our baseline forecast is that these data will cause GBP to give back its post-BoE decision gains. However, given the reliability of these two recent data series, we do not recommend placing too much weight on either set of data. Crucially, the data will prompt markets to refocus on the weakness in the UK economy ahead of the Autumn Budget - a market environment that has tended to put the pound under pressure in recent months.

Labour market data released first on Tuesday is expected to show further weakness in the job market. It is expected that the weekly salary growth rate excluding bonuses in the three months of September will be 4.6% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 4.8% to 4.9%. This is generally consistent with recent trends and other indicators, which show that the employment environment continues to slowly loosen.

After a slowdown in the labor market, GDP data released on Thursday may also be weak. The market generally predicts that the economy will grow by 0.2% in the third quarter, which is slower than the previous value of 0.3%, leaving the year-on-year growth rate at a weak 1.3%. Monthly estimates for September show the economy failed to expand that month after recording 0.1% month-on-month growth in August. In short, this is by no means good news for Chancellor Reeves ahead of the autumn budget.

In fact, we believe that the market is likely to interpret this round of data through this perspective. If the data meets expectations, it is reasonableThe corollary would be that the economy is already struggling even without the major fiscal hit from tax increases. Given this, we continue to believe the market is pricing in central bank rates to be too hawkish and expectations for UK growth to be too optimistic. The expected reversal of these two aspects in the xmxyly.coming weeks is bound to further suppress the trend of the pound.

Citi: The summary of the meeting opinions is a signal that the Bank of Japan may welcome an interest rate hike; the future path of the Reserve Bank of Australia depends on...

We noticed the early xmxyly.comments of RBA Vice Chairman Hauser on monetary policy and the summary of opinions of the October meeting released by the Bank of Japan. Officials from the Bank of Japan hinted that the next time to raise interest rates will xmxyly.come soon, and the current trend of domestic wage growth has attracted the attention of policymakers. The summary of the meeting’s opinions stated that “the conditions for further normalization of policy interest rates are likely to be basically in place.” This statement reinforced market expectations that the Bank of Japan is moving towards raising interest rates in December or January 2026. The bank previously voted 7 to 2 to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, a level that has continued since the last rate hike in January this year.

According to our team’s observation, although there has been no new information to stimulate the market recently, the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates at next month’s meeting has increased, and Japanese government bond futures have also xmxyly.come under pressure. Our interest rate trading team and Japanese economists still maintain their judgment of raising interest rates in January, mainly considering the timing of wage negotiations. This morning's market volatility will make the market pay more attention to the follow-up speeches of Bank of Japan officials.

On the other hand, RBA Vice Chairman Hauser pointed out that policymakers face "unique challenges" in the context of capacity constraints. He ruled out the impact of global inflation on monetary policy, stressing that domestic factors were more important. The No. 2 official also dodged a question about the neutral interest rate, calling the non-accelerating inflation rate "a concept of questionable utility." His remarks basically continued the policy logic of the Reserve Bank of Australia staying on hold at last week's interest rate resolution, saying that to achieve the inflation target, it needs to maintain "sufficiently restrictive" policies to continue to narrow the supply and demand gap. The market currently expects only one interest rate cut next year, and our economists believe that the RBA's current easing cycle is over.

The market remains focused on Australia’s October unemployment data to be released this Thursday. If the actual data is recorded near 4.4%, it will not change their forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not cut interest rates in the next year.

Mitsubishi UFJ: After the Bank of England's "dovish pause", can it fulfill its interest rate cut expectations with the cooperation of inflation data and the fiscal budget?

Looking back at last week’s Bank of England interest rate resolution, its decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.00% marked the temporary end of the quarterly interest rate cutting rhythm established since August 2024. Although major adjustments were made to the xmxyly.communication method at this meeting, the core message has not changed: inflation may have peaked, but more data is still needed to confirm before further easing policy. We maintain our previous judgment and expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates in December and continue to do so next year.Interest rates were raised twice, with the final policy interest rate target being 3.25%.

The voting result of this meeting (5 to 4) was closer than we expected. After voting for stability 17 times in a row, Breeden turned to the dovish camp for the first time and voted for an interest rate cut. Despite divisions within the Monetary Policy xmxyly.committee (MPC), Governor Bailey remains the key deciding vote. He said that although the Bank of England judged that inflation may have peaked, it believed that waiting until the December meeting to take action had higher "option value". During this period, the Bank of England will obtain "more data on inflation and cost pressures in the economy" and be able to "assess the impact of this year's budget on the economy and the outlook for inflation".

Between this meeting and the December meeting, there will be two rounds of inflation data releases and a fiscal budget. The performance of the data will be a key basis for judging whether inflation has indeed peaked. The Bank of England expects core inflation to fall to 3.4% in November from 3.8%, which has been flat for three consecutive months. We interpret from Bailey's statement that as long as the inflation data is in line with the above forecasts, it will be enough for him to vote for a rate cut in December (without going further below expectations). We believe that the upcoming budget is likely to be interpreted as dovish by the market. The chancellor worked to send a positive signal to markets, emphasizing a "firm xmxyly.commitment" to fiscal rules and mentioning "driving inflation back" and "creating conditions for interest rate cuts." Although the Bank of England will still be wary of the distortionary and inflationary effects that fiscal measures may bring, considering that the Chancellor of the Exchequer has shown a stance of learning from past experience and the overall policy tone is biased towards fiscal consolidation, the budget is expected to pave the way for further interest rate cuts in December.

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Summary of institutional views

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