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[Today’s Focus] The U.S. government shutdown is coming to an end, why is gold soaring?

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xmxyly.commentary]: [Today's focus] The U.S. government shutdown is xmxyly.coming to an end, why is gold soaring?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

The longest recorded U.S. government shutdown in history is xmxyly.coming to an end, U.S. stocks are ecstatic, and gold is soaring!

The two parties in the Senate reached a preliminary agreement on the temporary appropriation bill on Sunday night, agreeing in principle to extend government funding until January 30. However, the vote on extending the "Obama Care" subsidy that the Democrats are most concerned about may be postponed to December. Apparently, there are differences and even divisions within the Democratic Party on whether to end the budget deadlock. The bill still needs to go through a final vote in the Senate, and then be passed by the House of Representatives before it can be sent to Trump for signature. The entire process may take several days or even longer.

The end of the U.S. government shutdown means that the once tight market liquidity is expected to be alleviated. The most direct impact is that approximately US$1 trillion in U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) funds are expected to flow back to the economic system, which is equivalent to a disguised interest rate cut. Optimistic expectations spurred a collective rise in global stock markets on Monday. The Nasdaq index rose by more than 2%. Large technology stocks were all in the red. Nvidia's stock price rose by nearly 6% overnight.

Although the end of the shutdown does not mean that recent economic data will be released on time, the Fed is expected to have three non-agricultural reports (September, October, and November) as a reference before the December 10 meeting. This greatly reduces the risk of decision-making errors and will also correspondingly reduce serious differences within the Fed. The probability of a rate cut in December implied by the current interest rate market has dropped to around 60%, which has helped the US dollar index stabilize around 99.60.

In terms of non-US currencies, the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar led gains overnight, while the Japanese yen fell 0.5%.

Japan’s Prime Minister expressed a loose fiscal policy on Mondaystance, and did not rule out the possibility of lowering the consumption tax, and asked the Bank of Japan to cautiously raise interest rates, indicating that Japan's economic policy focus may have officially shifted from tightening to stimulating growth. The Nikkei rose 1.2% on Monday, while stimulating the US/JPY to return to above 154, and the Japanese yen is at its weakest level since February.

Gold surged 2.9% to $4,115 on Monday. In addition to explaining that bulls have been preparing for a breakthrough in technical form for a long time, the efforts of countries such as the United States (after the government restart) and Japan to stimulate the economy through ever-expanding debt burdens and fiscal deficits have undoubtedly created a need for risk hedging. In addition, more economic data after the government opens its doors may once again stimulate expectations of interest rate cuts, which is good for gold. Silver surged 4.5% overnight and returned to above $50.

On Tuesday, focus on UK employment data (15:00) and the Euro Economic Sentiment Index (18:00).

NASDAQ1004 hours

Source: TradingView

Market liquidity is expected to return if the U.S. government reopens its doors. At the same time, Trump even said that he would consider issuing a "tariff dividend" of US$2,000 to most Americans. Optimism is expected to continue to stimulate the Nasdaq 100 index to rise at the beginning of this week.

From a technical perspective, the multiple bottom patterns from October to November are very similar to those from August to September, and the last bottom rebound (bullish engulfing pattern) was very strong, suggesting the possibility of continuing the upward trend. The trend line extending from the high level may form a certain obstacle at 25,800, but it is difficult to block the benefits brought by the resonance of the current news and technical aspects. After breaking through, it is expected to hit 26,000 and historical highs.

EURUSD 4 hours

Source: TradingView

With the rebound of the US dollar, the recent rebound of the euro has been slightly weak, and the moving averages and trend lines in the chart have formed suppression. In the short term, focus is on the initial buffer near 1.1545. After falling below, the exchange rate may drop to the previous low of 1.1468 to seek support. On the contrary, if the above support can be held, it means that the exchange rate may continue to operate within a narrow range of 1.1545-1.1590.

On Tuesday, focus on the economic sentiment index of the Eurozone and Germany, but the impact on the exchange rate should be limited and short-lived.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xmxyly.commentary]: [Today’s focus] The U.S. government shutdown is xmxyly.coming to an end, why is gold soaring?", which is carefully xmxyly.compiled and xmxyly.compiled by the editor of XM Foreign ExchangeEdited, I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

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CATEGORIES

News

market news

[Today’s Focus] The U.S. government shutdown is coming to an end, why is gold soaring?

NASDAQ1004 hours

EURUSD 4 hours

Related News

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