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Silver rush hits $54! The historical high is close at hand. Is it a breakthrough or "death in the face of light"?

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: Silver rushes to $54! The historical high is close at hand, is it a breakthrough or "die in the face of light"?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On Thursday (November 13), spot silver continued its strong performance, trading slightly below $54 before the US market opened, rising for the fifth consecutive trading day. This price is just one step away from the all-time high of $54.436 set on October 16. The precious metals market showed xmxyly.complex trading dynamics stimulated by the news of the reopening of the U.S. government. The dual support of safe-haven demand and industrial attributes made the trend of silver attract market attention. Uncertainty about the outlook for the Federal Reserve's policy, weak labor market data, and the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar index together form the macro backdrop for the current silver situation.

Fundamentals

The U.S. government has ended the longest shutdown in history, and President Trump signed the federal funding bill, marking the official end of this political deadlock. The bill requires the government to resume normal operations and provide direct payments for individuals to purchase health care. The end of this incident has improved market risk sentiment in the short term, but safe-haven demand for precious metals has not xmxyly.completely subsided. Key economic data that was delayed during the government shutdown will be released one after another, and the market is waiting for these data to reassess the health of the economy.

Signs of weakness in the labor market have further strengthened market expectations for loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The ADP employment report showed that the private sector shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks to October 25, marking the second consecutive month of declines in employment. The data was far weaker than market expectations, raising concerns among traders about slowing economic growth. Although October's overall employment data has not yet been released due to the government shutdown, the continued weakness in the private sector has set the tone for the Federal Reserve's policyProvides important reference for decision-making.

The Federal Reserve’s policy path has become the core variable affecting silver prices. According to data from the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the market's expected probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December to a range of 3.50%-3.75% has risen to 67% from 62% a week ago. Silver, a non-yielding asset, tends to perform well in falling interest rate environments as lower carrying costs increase its relative attractiveness. However, recent hawkish statements by some Fed officials have added uncertainty to this expectation.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in a speech at the Greater Boston Chamber of xmxyly.commerce that recent interest rate cuts have significantly raised the threshold for further easing of monetary policy and emphasized the risk of upward inflation. She noted that in the current highly uncertain environment, keeping policy rates at current levels for a period of time may be appropriate to balance inflation and employment risks. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also warned in a speech at the Economic Club of Atlanta that premature easing of policy could "fuel the inflationary beast." At the same time, he judged that the labor market was unlikely to deteriorate sharply in the short term. The cautious attitude of these officials has caused the probability of a rate cut in December to drop to 60% from 67% the previous day, and the market has become more divided on the policy outlook.

The trend of the U.S. dollar index provides additional support for silver. The U.S. dollar index experienced a technical rebound on Wednesday after five consecutive days of decline, but was subsequently sold off again to a new low this month near 99.15. The weakness of the U.S. dollar directly increases the attractiveness of U.S. dollar-denominated silver to holders of other currencies, and also reflects the market's cautious attitude towards the U.S. economic outlook.

As a cousin metal to gold, silver has shown strong resilience this month, supported by both safe-haven buying and industrial demand. Analysts pointed out that the reopening of the government will help stabilize industrial metals, as the normal release of economic data can provide a clearer outlook for the manufacturing and construction industries. However, if the Fed turns to a more dovish stance in December, silver could see a new influx of buying. This dual attribute causes silver to tend to be more volatile than a pure safe-haven asset, but also offers greater upside.

The gold purchasing behavior of global central banks has provided long-term support for the precious metals market. Several emerging market economies continue to increase their gold reserves to diversify their foreign exchange reserves and reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. This trend has become increasingly apparent in the context of geopolitical uncertainty and the restructuring of the global monetary system. While central banks primarily purchase gold rather than silver, this increase in overall demand for the precious metal often has a spillover effect, indirectly driving silver prices higher.

Technical aspect:

The daily chart shows that spot silver currently remains in an upward trend channel. Starting from a periodic low of $41.115, silver prices experienced a strong bullish trend. Although there was a deep correction to around $45.527, it soon recovered again.Regained upward momentum. This V-shaped reversal trend shows that the market has abundant buying power, and each pullback has attracted funds to buy on dips. Prices are currently within striking distance of October’s double highs of $54.436 and $54.366, an area that poses key resistance in the short term. If it can effectively break through the $54.50 line, silver is expected to attack the integer mark of $55 or even higher.

In terms of price structure, the two horizontal lines of $49.400 and $47.000 form important support levels. As a support area that has been tested many times recently, $49.400 has formed a relatively solid bull defense line. This position, which had acted as resistance during the rise, has now been converted into support, showing the typical characteristics of a support-resistance interchange. The deeper support level of $47.000 corresponds to the bottom area of the early consolidation platform, where a large number of transaction-intensive areas have accumulated. If the price falls back here, it is expected to trigger strong buying support. Judging from the range of fluctuations, silver's rise between US$41.115 and US$54.436 has accumulated a cumulative increase of more than 30%, showing the strong momentum of the precious metals market.

From the overall shape, silver is in the stage of gaining momentum before a breakthrough. If it can achieve an effective breakthrough with the increase in trading volume, it will open up room for further growth; conversely, if it repeatedly fluctuates at high levels and fails to break through, it may trigger short-term technical adjustments.

Outlook

Bull Scenario Outlook

If the Federal Reserve chooses to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting, the silver market is expected to usher in a new round of gains. Falling interest rates will reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, significantly increasing the relative attractiveness of silver. Under this scenario, silver is expected to break through the resistance level of $54.50 and attack the integer mark of $55. If the breakthrough is effectively supported by trading volume, the price may further test to the $56 to $57 area. From the perspective of wave theory, the current rise may be in the extension stage of the third wave, which is usually the driving wave with the largest increase and the strongest momentum. If established, it means that silver still has considerable room to rise.

Reviving industrial demand will provide additional upside momentum for silver. As the U.S. government reopens and economic activity returns to normal, demand in the manufacturing and construction industries is expected to gradually pick up. Silver is widely used in photovoltaics, electronics, medical and other fields, and the recovery of the global manufacturing industry will directly translate into physical demand for silver. If the global economy shows more resilience than expected in the fourth quarter, industrial demand for silver may grow beyond market expectations, driving prices higher.

Technically, if silver can stand above $54 and build a new support platform at this position, it will accumulate strength for subsequent upward attacks. If the MACD indicator reappears as a golden cross at a high level, it will provide a further buying signal.

If the central bank’s continued gold buying trend is strengthened, it will provide long-term support for the entire precious metals sector. emerging market economiesThe need for diversification of foreign exchange reserves and the consideration of hedging geopolitical risks have made gold and silver increasingly attractive as reserve assets. This increase in structural demand will provide solid bottom support for silver prices. Even if there is a short-term adjustment, the long-term upward trend will not change.

Bear Scenario Outlook

If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in December or releases a more hawkish policy signal, the silver market may face significant adjustment pressure. In this scenario, market expectations for interest rate cuts will be falsified, and the maintenance of high real interest rates will weaken the attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets. Silver prices are likely to pull back from current levels, testing support at $49.400 first. If this position fails, the possibility of a further decline to the $47.000 or even $45.500 area will increase significantly. Judging from the magnitude of the correction, a healthy pullback could wipe out the recent 10% to 15% gains, which is necessary to release accumulated profit-taking pressure and repair the overbought condition.

Technically, if silver forms a top reversal pattern such as a double top or a head-and-shoulders top at a high level, it will send a clear bearish signal. If the MACD indicator shows a top divergence, that is, the price reaches a new high but the indicator fails to reach a new high simultaneously, it will warn the bulls that the momentum is exhausted.

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Silver rush hits $54! The historical high is close at hand. Is it a breakthrough or "death in the face of light"?

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