Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- The pound 1.34 defense line sounds the "air raid alarm", and the "hawkish rebell
- The market is waiting for Powell's "Eagle Attack" annual meeting! Expectations o
- The euro plummeted continuously, and the market price approached the 1.1400 mark
- New Zealand dollar/USD bears dominate, upward resistance is significant
- Gold long started a good start this week, and gold long won seven consecutive vi
market news
The U.S. government shutdown is about to end, analysis of silver trading before the starting gun on Wednesday
Wonderful introduction:
If the sea loses the rolling of huge waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the wild dance of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its true course, it will lose its meaning.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xmxyly.commentary]: The US government shutdown is about to end, analysis of silver trading before the starting gun on Wednesday". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
During the Asian trading session on Tuesday (November 11), spot silver continued to rebound, achieving five consecutive positives, trading around US$50.69, approaching the key mark of US$51.00. The same conclusion as before, every acceleration in xmxyly.commodity prices is an emotional high point, and taking profits at this time will not be the worst option. As a non-interest-bearing precious metal, silver has gained strong bullish momentum with the expectation of a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve against the current background of rising economic uncertainty in the United States. At the same time, coupled with the long-term support brought by key mineral attributes, the long-short game in the market continues to escalate and has become the focus of the trading market.
The government shutdown is about to break, and bulls are beginning to cash in
Although expectations of interest rate cuts provide strong support, the resolution process of the U.S. government shutdown is becoming a reason for bulls to cash in, and is a key factor restricting the further rise of silver prices.
The U.S. Senate passed a government funding bill with a vote of 60 in favor and 40 against. The bill contains three "mini appropriations bills" and is scheduled to be voted on as soon as November 12 (Wednesday). Trump said that he will sign the bill. The government is expected to restart before the weekend, ending the 41-day government shutdown. Eight Democratic congressmen and the Republican camp have joined forces to support the advancement of the bill, which has been submitted to the House of Representatives for approval.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune also made it clear that Trump is expected to sign the bill into effect after both houses of Congress pass it.
From the perspective of trading logic, after the government shutdown ends, domestic economic activities in the United States will gradually resume, risk preferences may shift to risky assets, and some funds may flow out of safe havens such as silver. At the same time, the trend of the U.S. dollar may gain support, thereby suppressing the price of silver priced in U.S. dollars, and its upside is bearish.Time may be limited.
Interest rate cuts are expected to dominate, and silver has gained continued upward momentum
The Fed’s policy trends have always been the core variable affecting silver prices. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Millan made it clear on Monday that inflationary pressures are continuing to ease and that it is reasonable to maintain the interest rate cut process. He recommended that a 50 basis point interest rate cut be implemented in December, or at least 25 basis points of easing be implemented. He further added that the U.S. economy has not yet reached full employment, and all data since September support the implementation of further easing policies.
At the same time, San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley also issued an article suggesting that there is a problem with the supply of jobs in the United States, and cutting interest rates may boost the labor market without worsening inflation.
This statement, coupled with the weak signal of U.S. economic data, significantly boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts.
There were job losses in the United States in October (mainly in the government and retail sectors), and the consumer confidence index fell to a three-and-a-half-year low in early November. The double bad news strengthened expectations for policy easing. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, current market pricing reflects a 62% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December.
Driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, funds continued to flow into non-interest-bearing silver assets, pushing it to rebound past the integer mark of $50 after holding on to the key short-term support level of $48 per ounce, and the bullish momentum continued to be released.
The attributes of key minerals are supported, and industrial demand and supply chain disruptions are highlighted
The long-term trend of silver prices is also strongly supported by its status as a key mineral. Since being officially included in the 2025 critical mineral list of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the industrial consumption demand for silver has been generally optimistic.
Analysts pointed out that this move will significantly boost the application demand for silver in new energy, electronics and other fields, and will continue to disrupt the global supply chain of the precious metal, leading to tighter supply in the physical market and providing long-term upward momentum for prices.
This impact has been reflected in early price trends: last month, driven by a surge in physical demand that led to the depletion of above-ground inventories in the London market, silver prices soared to a historical peak of $54.48 per ounce.
At the same time, given that silver’s key mineral properties may trigger new tariff policies, U.S. precious metals banks have been reluctant to release their silver inventories, further exacerbating short-term supply tensions and becoming an important driver of price increases.
The surge in inventories has eased the tight supply, and the risk of a correction cannot be ignored
However, in the short term, the tight supply situation in the silver market has eased, and the risk of a correction has attracted market attention. Daniel Galli, senior xmxyly.commodities strategist at TD Securities, warned investors that the precious metal still faces the risk of further corrections as supply chain constraints gradually ease.
Gali cited inventory data from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), saying that it is estimated that the size of silver currently available for trading in London vaults is approximately 198 million ounces.
He said that this means that in historyAbout two weeks after the sexual “silver short squeeze” incident, circulating inventories have surged by 111 million ounces.
Although some silver flows into London from other markets such as New York to chase higher premiums, about 30% of it xmxyly.comes from the release of private vault inventories and the increase in scrap silver recycling, and is not a simple reallocation of inventory.
Gali further emphasized that although the latest round of silver market short squeeze may have ended, the overall market structure has not fundamentally changed.
To trigger the next round of short squeeze, one of the following two conditions must be met: First, the stocks in the Shanghai and New York markets will shrink further; second, export control measures that may hinder the market rebalancing mechanism are introduced, including the implementation of Section 232 tariffs, or China’s implementation of more stringent export controls.
Trading Focus: Policy Signals and Inventory Changes
The current silver market is in a pattern of "long-term positives and short-term negatives intertwined, and the long-short power game intensifies." Traders need to focus on two core directions: First, the Fed's policy trends, and the implementation and effectiveness of the December interest rate cut resolution. The degree will directly affect the trend of the US dollar, which in turn determines the valuation center of silver prices;
The second is changes in inventories and supply chains. Inventory data in markets such as London and New York and the dynamics of key mineral-related policies (such as tariffs and export controls) will directly reflect changes in the supply and demand pattern and provide signal guidance for short-term transactions.
At the same time, the recovery of economic data after the U.S. government reopens and the actual recovery pace of industrial demand also need to be taken into consideration in trading decisions to fully grasp the core driving factors of price fluctuations and respond to market uncertainty.
Technical analysis:
It can be seen from the spot silver daily line that the silver price has rebounded from the bottom of the ascending channel. It is currently subject to the upper rail of the ascending channel and the 50% suppression of the long negative line on October 21. Silver bulls and covered ETFs will put pressure on the subsequent rise of silver.
The support is today’s lowest price of 50.37, which is also the 50% percentile on October 21, followed by the middle rail of the upward channel, and the upper rail of the upward channel where the pressure level is gradually moving up near 51.11.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xmxyly.commentary]: The U.S. government shutdown is about to end, analysis of silver trading before the starting gun on Wednesday". It is carefully xmxyly.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
After doing something, there will always be experiences and lessons learned. In order to facilitate future work, the experience and lessons of past work must be analyzed, researched, summarized, concentrated, and understood at a theoretical level.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here