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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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CATEGORIES
market news
The torrent of supply suppressed the rebound of crude oil, maintaining a neutral to bearish trend.
Wonderful introduction:
Out of the thorns, in front of you is a broad road covered with flowers; when you climb to the top of the mountain, you will see the green mountains at your feet. In this world, if one star falls, it cannot dim the starry sky; if one flower withers, it cannot make the entire spring barren.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Supply torrent suppresses, crude oil rebound weak, maintaining neutral to bearish trend". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Tuesday (November 11), U.S. crude oil continued to fall slightly by about 0.42% to around $59.88 per barrel, and did not continue the gains from the previous two trading days. In the past two weeks, oil price fluctuations have always been less than 3%, reflecting the recent market's continued stable neutral-to-bearish trend. Concerns about potential oversupply have left short-term market sentiment uncertain. As long as OPEC+ output policy does not release a clear signal, this lack of direction is likely to continue to limit oil price trends and keep oil prices within a neutral range in the next few days.
Crude oil supply status
Concerns about global crude oil supply continue to exist, especially after the latest OPEC+ meeting decided to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from December this year. At the same time, U.S. production continues to hit records, with the latest EIA data showing that its daily output has exceeded 13.2 million barrels.
Although market expectations at the beginning of this week that the end of the U.S. government shutdown may boost economic activity at the end of the year briefly boosted the demand outlook, the current supply situation limits the space for a sustained recovery in oil prices. The market is worried that as U.S. production rises and OPEC+ increases production, there may be a supply glut in early 2026. This issue is expected to be discussed at the next OPEC+ meeting in early December.
Current medium-term forecasts do not indicate a sharp rebound in oil prices. According to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report, crude oil futures prices will remain around US$60/barrel from the end of 2025 to early 2026, while spot prices may fall below US$50/barrel, which strengthens the neutral to bearish expectations. The main source of pressure is the continued growth of global supply (especially the United States and OPEC+ countries).
Therefore, despite the recent oilPrices tried to rebound due to a slight improvement in demand expectations, but the core factor that dominates the market is still the risk of oversupply. If oil-producing countries continue to increase production before the end of the year, the resulting imbalance between supply and demand may intensify selling pressure, making it difficult for crude oil to achieve a sustained recovery in the short term.
Technical Analysis
The downward trend remains intact: The recent trend of crude oil continues to reflect a consistent downward trend, and prices are still subject to the suppression of the downward trend line. The dominant market bias remains bearish, and as long as oil prices remain below the 50-day moving average (MA, 61.37), the downward trend is expected to continue to dominate the market in the xmxyly.coming weeks. The lack of a sustained bullish correction further reinforces the current technical structure, which remains the most interesting price pattern to watch in the short term.
RSI indicator: The RSI line continues to hover below the neutral level of 50, indicating that the average momentum over the past 14 trading days has shown a neutral to bearish trend.
MACD indicator: The MACD indicator shows similar characteristics. The key indicator is located in the negative area near the zero axis. This pattern implies that unless there is a new bull or short catalyst, the neutral-to-bearish pattern will continue to dominate the market.
Key position tips:
$61.50 - Important resistance level: This level coincides with the 50-day moving average (61.37). A sustained breakout could weaken the current downtrend and trigger short-term bullish sentiment.
$60 - Psychological Pass: This point represents the key short-term psychological price. When oil prices fluctuate near this mark, the market is likely to remain range-bound, but if there is no bullish catalyst, continued weakness may trigger new downward pressure.
$57 - Key support level: Once this support is effectively broken, the bearish pressure that dominates the market may be reactivated, strengthening the existing downward trend, and may trigger a new round of downward movement in the next few trading days.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The torrent of supply is suppressed, the rebound of crude oil is weak, and the neutral to bearish trend is maintained". It is carefully xmxyly.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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