Crude oil fell by more than 4% due to the balance of supply and demand, and gold prices rose strongly to 4200, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts.

Basic news

On Thursday (November 13, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,195/oz. The price of gold rose strongly on Thursday, with spot gold hitting a new high since October 21, to US$4,211.65/oz. The xmxyly.company was driven by falling U.S. bond yields and increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut; U.S. crude oil traded around $58.30 per barrel. Oil prices fell more than 4% on Thursday, mainly affected by a report released by OPEC predicting that global oil supply will be equal to demand in 2026, marking a further shift in its forecast from supply shortage to supply and demand balance.

Focus on the day's focus

The IEA releases its monthly crude oil market report.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks showed a differentiated pattern on Wednesday: the Dow Jones Industrial Index set a new all-time closing high for the second consecutive day, while the Nasdaq ended lower due to pressure from technology stocks. Market funds are rotating from high-priced technology stocks to sectors such as health care and finance, while paying close attention to the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

The Dow closed 0.68% at 48254.82 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.26% to close at 23406.46 points; the S&P 500 index rose slightly by 0.06% to 6850.92 points.

In terms of individual stocks, Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth Group both rose by about 3.5%, becoming the main driving force for the Dow's strength. Technology stocks generally fell back, with Tesla falling 2.1% and Oracle falling 3.9%. However, AMD bucked the trend and rose 9% as the xmxyly.company announced ambitious data center revenue targets.

Market analysts pointed out that funds are moving from the Nasdaq-based boardBlocks rotate into other areas that are performing well, and this healthy rotation needs to be supported by broad-based growth in corporate earnings. At the same time, the U.S. House of Representatives is about to vote on a temporary funding bill to end the government shutdown, which will restore interrupted food assistance, pay federal employee salaries and restart the air traffic control system. Investors believe that the normalization of government operations will eliminate major risks and is crucial to the operation of the real economy.

In terms of economic data, investors have to rely on private indicators due to the lack of official data due to the government shutdown. The latest ADP employment data showed continued weakness in private sector employment. The market currently expects a 65% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December.

Gold Market

Gold prices rose strongly on Wednesday, driven by falling U.S. bond yields and increased expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Spot gold prices closed up nearly 2% at $4,211.65 per ounce, a new high since October 21; U.S. December gold futures closed up 2.4% at $4,213.60 per ounce.

Market analysis pointed out that the U.S. government is about to end its 42-day shutdown, which will restart the release of key economic data, and the expected weak economic data further strengthens the Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate cuts. xmxyly.commodity strategists at TD Securities said: After the government reopens, the data to be released are likely to confirm that the U.S. economy has shown weakness.

At the same time, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield fell about 5 basis points to its lowest level since November 5, while the ADP weekly employment data released showed that private sector employment continued to be weak, with an average weekly loss of 11,250 jobs over four weeks. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders currently see a 65% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December.

Other precious metals followed gold's gains. Spot silver rose 4.6% to US$53.58 per ounce, a new high since October 17; platinum and palladium rose 2% and 2.5% respectively. Non-yielding gold assets typically perform strongly during periods of low interest rates and economic uncertainty.

Oil Market

Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, down more than 4%, mainly due to the release of a report by OPEC predicting that global oil supply will be equal to demand in 2026, which marks a further shift in its forecast from supply shortage to supply and demand balance.

Brent crude oil futures closed at $62.71 per barrel, down 3.76%; U.S. crude oil closed at $58.49 per barrel, down 4.18%.

Market analysis points out that OPEC’s forecast that world oil supply will be equal to demand next year is a key factor driving the decline in oil prices. Analysts said: The prospect of a balanced market has undoubtedly driven the price decline, and the market tends to believe that supply and demand have become balanced.

It is worth noting that the International Energy Agency’s forecasts in its annual World Energy Outlook contrast with OPEC, which predicts that oil and natural gas demand may continue to grow until 2050. In contrast,This reflects that it no longer bases its predictions solely on the climate xmxyly.commitments of various countries.

On the other hand, analysts believe that the U.S. government's resumption of operations may boost consumer confidence and economic activity, thereby stimulating demand for crude oil. The market is paying close attention to the outlook report to be released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday for more guidance on market direction.

Foreign Market

The U.S. dollar fell slightly against the euro on Wednesday as traders assessed the potential impact on Federal Reserve policy of a large amount of economic data to be released after the U.S. government shutdown ends. Meanwhile, the yen fell to its lowest level in nine months against the dollar on concerns that Japan's new government could pressure the central bank to delay raising interest rates.

The euro rose 0.04% against the US dollar to US$1.1585; the US dollar index edged up 0.05% to 99.50, and the yen weakened as Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made it clear that he preferred to maintain low interest rates and requested close policy coordination with the central bank.

The U.S. government will release a backlog of economic data after the shutdown ends, but the White House warned that the October employment and inflation reports may be permanently missing.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December remains at 65%, but there are internal differences on the policy path. Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressed his preference to keep interest rates unchanged and announced that he would retire in 2026. The market expects that the release of data may trigger sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese government's measures to strengthen coordination with the central bank have intensified the pressure on the yen to depreciate.

Other developments worth noting include the U.S. Supreme Court which will hear Trump’s attempt to oust Federal Reserve Governor Cook in January, and the Treasury Secretary’s announcement of new measures to lower the price of imported goods.

International News

The "open door" of the U.S. government will be a slow-motion restart that may last more than a week

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is about to end, but it may take several days to fully resume normal operations, and some agencies may even take a week or more. Payroll systems need to be updated to backpay wages during the shutdown. The backlog of grant disbursements, loan applications and customer service that have been stagnant for 43 days also needs to be cleared as soon as possible. Delays in environmental permits, workplace inspections and government contract approvals are piling up across federal agencies. The above-mentioned restart work cannot be carried out until Congress passes an appropriation bill and President Trump formally signs it. The House of Representatives could pass the Senate-approved temporary funding bill as early as Wednesday night, but many government agencies may not begin to resume operations until Friday or next Monday, depending on how quickly the bill advances in Congress.

Hassett: If given the opportunity, he is willing to serve as chairman of the Federal Reserve and advocate for deeper interest rate cuts

Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said that he has told Trump that if he is nominated to succeed Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve, he will accept the position. Hassett added that he hopes to implement a deeper rate cut at the December policy meeting. Hassett is one of the candidates named by Trump. He expressed concern about Powell's response to a prolonged government shutdown and better-than-expected inflation data.Against the background, I am surprised that a more aggressive rate cut was not adopted. "I think the president feels that interest rates can be lower, and I agree with that," Hassett said. He noted that he believed a 50 basis point rate cut was warranted, but expected the Fed to cut interest rates by only 25 basis points. Hassett believes that every week the government shutdown lasts will reduce U.S. GDP by about $15 billion, noting that September's inflation data was lower than expected.

International Energy Agency: About 730 million people around the world still do not have access to electricity supply

The "World Energy Outlook 2025" report released by the International Energy Agency on the 12th stated that approximately 730 million people around the world still do not have access to electricity supply, and climate risks are increasing day by day. The report says the world is falling short when it xmxyly.comes to energy access and xmxyly.combating climate change. However, the report also pointed out that if the world achieves net-zero emissions goals by the middle of this century, long-term warming is still expected to be controlled within 1.5 degrees Celsius.

British Health Secretary: Will not ask the Prime Minister to resign

British Health Secretary Wes Streeting reiterated his support for Prime Minister Starmer on the 12th, saying that he "will not ask the Prime Minister to resign." According to reports from "people close to Starmer", Starmer is facing pressure from within the party when he is in power. The "forced palace" within the party may occur after the government releases the 2025 autumn budget on the 26th of this month. Streeting and Home Secretary Shebana Mahmoud are possible successors. It is expected that the budget will propose an increase in income tax, which will violate the Labor Party's campaign promise and may further damage the Labor Party's public support. Streeting said the so-called "revelations" from Starmer's allies were not only untrue, but were tantamount to "self-destruction" for the Labor Party in the current situation.

Canada announced new sanctions against Russia

On the 12th local time, Canadian Foreign Minister Anand announced that Canada would impose new sanctions on Russia. The sanctions list includes 13 individuals and 11 entities, including those involved in the development and deployment of Russia's drone program, entities that provide cyber infrastructure for cyber attacks, multiple Russian liquefied natural gas xmxyly.companies, and 100 ships in the shadow fleet. Russia has yet to respond.

Trump sent a letter to the Israeli president calling for a pardon for Netanyahu, who was accused of disrespecting the Israeli judicial system

US President Trump sent a letter to Israeli President Isaac Herzog, urging him to pardon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in accordance with the law, who is facing charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Although Trump has previously called for Netanyahu to be pardoned, including during a speech in the Knesset last month, this is the first time he is known to have written to Herzog on the matter. Frances Raday, a retired law professor who has appeared before the Israeli Supreme Court, pointed out: "This is extremely disrespectful to the Israeli judicial system." She said that pardon is usually only granted after conviction, and there is only one precedent for pre-pardon in Israeli history.

The U.S. government has tightened visa review and strictly assessed applicants’ health status and financial ability

According to CCTVNews, the Trump administration issued a new directive requiring U.S. embassies and consulates abroad to more strictly evaluate applicants’ health status and financial ability during visa review, which may make it more difficult for foreigners with diabetes, obesity or insufficient financial conditions to obtain visas or long-term residence qualifications. The directive, issued by the State Department via an internal cable last week, requires visa officers to xmxyly.comprehensively review whether applicants are likely to be dependent on U.S. public benefits upon entry. Criteria include age, health, family status, financial resources, education, skills, English proficiency and previous use of public assistance.

U.S. Secretary of State: The Trump-Putin meeting will not be held until there are substantial results

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said on Wednesday that Trump will only agree to meet with Putin again if there is a "substantial opportunity" to promote the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Rubio told reporters: "Both sides agreed that the next meeting of heads of state must produce concrete results - it must be clear before negotiations that positive progress can be achieved." He added: "Of course we hope the war will end, but we cannot meet just for meetings." Trump suddenly announced plans to hold a new round of summits in October, but it has not materialized so far. Russia has lowered expectations for short-term meetings, and Trump has increased pressure on Russia.

Most voting xmxyly.committees of the Federal Reserve are cautious about cutting interest rates in December

Federal Reserve officials have frequently expressed their stance on monetary policy recently. "Fed spokesperson" Nick Timiraos pointed out that there are currently four local Fed presidents with FOMC voting rights (Boston Fed Collins, St. Louis Fed Musallem, Chicago Fed Goolsby, and Kansas Fed Schmid who voted against the October interest rate cut) have shown no active willingness to promote another interest rate cut in December.

Domestic News

Qiu Yong, Chairman of the Shanghai Stock Exchange: Sincerely invites global investors to actively pay attention to and continue to allocate Chinese assets

On November 12, Qiu Yong, Chairman of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, on the 20th In his speech at the 25th Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investors Conference, he said that looking forward to the "15th Five-Year Plan", the Shanghai Stock Exchange will closely adhere to the main lines of risk prevention, strong supervision, and promotion of high-quality development, adhere to integrity and innovation, seek progress while maintaining stability, and accelerate the construction of a world-class exchange. "Currently, China's economy is at a critical stage of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation. The Shanghai Stock Exchange sincerely invites global investors to actively pay attention to and continue to allocate Chinese assets, jointly seize new opportunities for international capital investment in the new era, and jointly share the dividends of high-quality development of the Chinese economy." Qiu Yong said.

Ice and snow sports continue to heat up and it is expected that the industry scale will exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2025

As the supply of different types of ice and snow venues and facilities continues to enrich, the number of people participating in ice and snow sports in my country has steadily expanded, driving the rapid growth of my country's ice and snow industry. Data shows that the total scale of my country's ice and snow sports industry will reach 970 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 9%, and is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2025.

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