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A lose-lose game, the shutdown is a theater rather than a policy tool
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xmxyly.commentary]: A lose-lose game, the shutdown is a theater rather than a policy tool." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On October 1, 2025, the U.S. federal government fell into the longest 43-day shutdown in history due to the deadlock between the two parties over the renewal of subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA, also known as Obamacare). The Democrats insist on linking the government funding bill to the extension of ACA subsidies that will expire at the end of the year to avoid skyrocketing medical insurance premiums for millions of Americans; the Republicans refuse to discuss any medical issues during the shutdown, demanding "first reopen the government and then negotiate." The shutdown resulted in 1.4 million federal employees working without pay or being furloughed, 42 million low-income family food assistance (SNAP) interruptions, widespread delays at airports, and accompanied by the large-scale federal layoffs (RIF) initiated by the Trump administration.
In the end, Congress passed the Continuation Resolution (CR) on November 12, Trump signed it that night, and the government restarted on November 13. The bill extends funding until January 30, 2026, with some agencies receiving full-year funding, reversing layoffs, and ensuring back wages. However, it does not include an extension of ACA subsidies, and only promises that the Senate will vote on the Democratic version of the subsidy bill in mid-December.
Why did Democratic congressmen "change sides"?
In the Senate's procedural vote on November 9 (passed 60-40), seven Democratic senators and one independent senator aligned with the Democratic Party broke the united front within the party and supported the bill to advance the reopening of the government. The move sparked a backlash within the party, with progressives accusing them of "capitulation" and "betrayal", but the lawmakers argued it was "the only feasible option." The motivation mainly stems from constituency pressure and negotiation realities: Virginia (Kaine), New Hampshire (Shaheen, Hassan) and other states have a large number of federal employees, and the interruption of SNAP directly affects the situation.Hitting low-income families; Fetterman has criticized the Democratic Party for being "in a quagmire" since the beginning of the shutdown, believing that continuing the shutdown will only increase people's pain. Shaheen and Durbin, who are about to retire, emphasized that the Republican Party has made it clear that "it will not give in to medical care during the shutdown." Although the bill is not perfect, it can immediately restore food assistance, reverse layoffs, and buy a time window for a December medical vote.
Who gives in more?
The Democratic Party has made more concessions on its core demands. The renewal of ACA subsidies was the only bargaining chip used by the Democratic Party to initiate the shutdown, but it was eventually xmxyly.completely stripped out of the CR, only getting a future vote with "no passage guarantee". The Republican Party has basically achieved the goal of "clean restart" and has not made substantial concessions on budget or medical policies. The only exception is employee protection: the bill requires the reversal of thousands of layoffs during the shutdown, back pay, and prohibits further RIF before January 30, which forces the Trump administration to temporarily abandon the "slimming down bureaucracy" plan.
In general, the Democratic Party has suffered greater political costs - intra-party divisions, grassroots anger, and loss of leverage; while the Republicans have maintained their strategic initiative despite tactical xmxyly.compromises.
Did both parties achieve their goals?
Neither side fully achieved their goals. The Democratic Party successfully pushed the medical issue to the December Senate agenda and set aside the attack point of "skyrocketing premiums" for the 2026 midterm elections. Schumer said that "this will become the issue of greatest concern to voters." However, ACA subsidies have not been extended, and millions of voters will face rising actual costs. The party regards this as a "strategic failure." The Republican Party successfully blocked the "omnibus" spending bill for the fourth time and briefly tested the government slimming mechanism. Trump declared that "we will never surrender to blackmail."
However, the 43-day shutdown caused the Republican Party to lose elections in Virginia, New Jersey and other states, and the poll support rate fell, exposing the loopholes in the "shutdown means victory" narrative. Historical experience shows that shutdowns rarely bring policy results - after a 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019, the border wall was still not fully funded.
Historical Precedent of Cross-Party Voting
It is not an isolated case for Democratic members of the Democratic Party to vote against each other. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, 9 Democratic congressmen (mostly moderates) voted in support of Trump's CR, prioritizing ending the crisis; during the 16-day shutdown in 2013, 28 Democratic congressmen ultimately supported the Republican budget; in the 1995-1996 Clinton era, Southern Democratic congressmen also voted across party lines to end the deadlock. The pattern is consistent: 5-10% of the "pragmatists" within the minority break up due to constituency pressure (such as states with dense federal employees) or tired of pain. Although the criticism within the party is fierce, there is little long-term political cost. The eight senators in 2025 (17% of the Democratic Party) fully conform to this pattern.
Why did Trump “relent”?
Trump has never really regarded the shutdown as a problem, and even regards it as a weapon to "severely damage the Democratic Party." But the final signing resulted from the squeeze of multiple realities: oneThe reason is the internal rupture of the Democratic Party, which easily broke through the 60-vote threshold, depriving it of negotiating capital; the second is the backlash of the economy and public opinion, with flight cancellations, SNAP interruptions, and airport paralysis. KFF polls show that 50% of the people support immediate reopening; the third is pressure within the party, with Speaker Johnson and leader Thune pushing for a "clean CR" to avoid making the midterm elections worse. Although Trump has threatened to abolish filibuster, there is strong opposition within the party. In the end, he signed the bill in the name of "complying with the agreement" while leaving room for another fight in December - this was more like a tactical concession than a philosophical shift.
Authoritative Views
Columnist Tim Kaine said, "Continuing to shut down will only intensify the pain. The Republican Party will not give in to medical care. We have won voting opportunities and employee protection. This is a realistic choice." Some people believe that "the shutdown exposed the inefficiency of the public sector and privatization should be accelerated" and praised the end of the crisis. Another analysis pointed out that "the lack of trust is the root cause of the deadlock. Trump was absent from the negotiations and neither party won." Some pro-Republican media said they were celebrating "eight Democrats breaking party discipline and proving that the Republican strategy is correct." Some more moderate views believe that moderate Democrats prioritize districts and progressives are furious; the Republican Party won a tactical victory, but the shutdown only fueled the Democratic election narrative.
Conclusion
This 43-day shutdown is a typical "lose-lose game": the Democratic Party uses leverage to exchange air, while the Republican Party wins and loses face. History has repeatedly proven that shutdowns are political theater rather than policy tools, and it is always the public who ultimately pays the bill. The ACA subsidy vote in December will be the next act, but no matter what the outcome, the lessons of 2025 are clear enough—in a divided Washington, toughness is often just a show, and xmxyly.compromise is the norm.
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