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Data, "out of date", the Federal Reserve first "splits"! What do you think of the market outlook?

Wonderful introduction:

A secluded path, with its twists and turns, will always arouse a refreshing yearning; a huge wave will make a thrilling sound when the tide rises and falls; a story, regretful and sad, only has the desolation of the heart; a life, with ups and downs, becomes shockingly heroic.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: data, "break", the Federal Reserve is "split" first! What do you think of the market outlook?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

As of 15:30 on November 11, 2025, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) showed a narrow range of fluctuations, with a real-time quotation of 99.673, a slight increase of 0.049% from the previous trading day's closing price of 99.589. The intraday fluctuation range was locked at 99.60-99.75, and the 100 integer mark has not yet been broken. This trend continued yesterday's shock characteristics - boosted by news of the Senate shutdown breaking up, it surged to 99.72 in early trading, but then fell back to the central range due to divergent statements by Fed officials.

On Sunday, the U.S. Senate reached a bipartisan xmxyly.compromise agreement and pushed to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history that began on October 1.

While the move should have boosted the U.S. dollar, short-term dollar buying has been significantly constrained as the market is still awaiting delayed economic data to assess the impact of the government shutdown on economic growth.

The market is full of expectations for the release of data after the shutdown ends, but there are dual uncertainties in the time window and data quality:

The release schedule is questionable: If the government officially restarts before this Thursday, the September non-farm payrolls report may be released on November 18. Deutsche Bank predicts an increase of 75,000 people; however, key data such as October CPI and retail sales may be postponed until after December 18, missing the December Federal Reserve interest rate meeting window.

Data quality is xmxyly.compromised:

The shutdown caused an interruption in the data collection process in October. Morgan Stanley warned that delayed data release may have a higher margin of error and reduce the reference value.

This "lack of key data" situation makes the Fed's December decision-making likely to be "blind"."Project Operation", the market has to guess the policy path through fragmented signals. This uncertainty has caused traders to adopt a more conservative strategy towards the US dollar, temporarily inhibiting its further upward move, and further exacerbating the randomness of US dollar fluctuations.

At the same time, Fed officials are divided: the confrontation between hawks and doves aggravates the confusion of expectations: the rising expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts also suppress the US dollar

Today's intensive statements from Federal Reserve officials are in sharp opposition, directly disturbing the valuation logic of the US dollar:

Hawk camp: St. Louis Fed Governor Mussallem emphasized that the U.S. economy will rebound significantly in the first quarter of next year. The current interest rate is close to the "critical anti-inflation range" and there is limited room for further interest rate cuts. Excessive easing may exacerbate financial stability risks, especially warning of the potential risks of high housing prices and stock prices. This statement is consistent with Bowie. This echoed Trump's stance that "an interest rate cut in December is not a certainty", reinforcing cautious policy expectations.

Dove camp: San Francisco Fed President Daly pointed out that economic demand is declining and inflation caused by tariffs is controllable, calling for an open attitude towards interest rate cuts; Governor Milan was even more blunt. Interest rates should be cut by 25-50 basis points in December to prevent economic momentum from fading.

This disagreement has led to repeated fluctuations in market expectations for interest rate cuts: the CMEFedWatch tool shows that the probability of an interest rate cut in December dropped to 62% after Mussallem’s speech, but Milan. After the statement, it rose back to 66%. The expected confusion caused the US dollar to lose a clear policy anchor, making it difficult to form a trend.

Weak consumer confidence reflects the pressure on economic growth, which strengthens investors' expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and also creates a downward trend for the US dollar. Constraints. In addition, the U.S. market will be closed on Tuesday for Veterans Day, leaving the U.S. dollar lacking trading impetus. In the short term, it will continue to be dominated by the Fed's interest rate policy expectations.

Market focus will be on multiple FOMC officials on Wednesday. In his speech, investors will seek further guidance on the path of future interest rate cuts to determine the demand and fluctuation direction of the U.S. dollar in the near future.

Technically, analysts said: “The U.S. dollar index will remain above 99 in the short term, but the market is still waiting to see economic data and policy signals. Expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have been fully factored in, and investors should not rush to chase the bulls. ”

From the daily chart, the U.S. dollar index is consolidating above the 9-day EMA, and the short-term long-short forces are in a stalemate. The RSI indicator is hovering near 50, indicating that the market lacks a clear trend.

If the U.S. dollar index breaks through the resistance above the 99.60 range, it may hit the market. It is opening up to 100, but if it falls below the 98.90 support, the short-term correction may continue. Overall, the short-term trend of the US dollar is still dominated by policy signals and economic data.

The above content is about "[XM Official Website]: Data, "break", the Fed internal first. "Split"! What do you think of the market outlook? "All the contents are carefully xmxyly.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thank you for your support!

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Data, "out of date", the Federal Reserve first "splits"! What do you think of the market outlook?

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

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CATEGORIES

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market analysis

Data, "out of date", the Federal Reserve first "splits"! What do you think of the market outlook?

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason