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Is it possible that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December?

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Is it possible for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

XM Review: Is it possible for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December?

XM Review: On December 11, the Federal Reserve will announce the results of the last interest rate resolution of the year. Market participants are obviously divided on whether the December resolution will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Milan is the only Fed member who explicitly supports a 50 basis point interest rate cut. He said: "We still believe that a 50 basis point interest rate cut (in December) is an appropriate choice." Milan's reason is that interest rate adjustments must be forward-looking for about one year. He believes that the U.S. macroeconomic situation in one year's time requires a 50 basis point interest rate cut now. Considering that Milan is a member of the Federal Reserve Board appointed by Trump and implements Trump's low interest rate policy, Milan's remarks have a strong stance and cannot fully represent the policy trends of the Federal Reserve.

Although other Fed governors often publicly negotiate monetary policy, they rarely mention the specific extent of interest rate cuts. It can be considered that the governors who support interest rate cuts default to a rate cut of 25 basis points. For example, Fed Governor Daley believes that maintaining high interest rates for too long is a mistake; Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson also said that as the risk of employment decline has increased, it is appropriate to take interest rate cuts. Judging from the current public statements, there is a clear majority of directors who support a 25 basis point interest rate cut.

▲XM Chart

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 63.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 36.6%. Cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is still the most mainstreamAccording to FedWatch, the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut is not marked on FedWatch. It can be understood that the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in December is extremely low.

Variables still exist, especially as the U.S. government has been shut down for nearly a month and a half. From October 1 to now, the U.S. government has been shut down for 41 days, setting a historical record. Hundreds of thousands of U.S. federal employees have been furloughed, and even critical positions that don't allow furloughs are unable to lead paychecks. The U.S. aviation industry has been hit hard, with security and air traffic control personnel being absent from work on a large scale, and a large number of flights being canceled or continued. "We may end up having shortages, both in our supply chain and during the holiday (Thanksgiving)," U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said.

The extreme situation caused by the government shutdown may lead to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points more than expected in December. The key now is the lack of non-farm payrolls reports for September and October. If the government shutdown ends and two additional non-farm payrolls reports are issued, and the report shows that the U.S. labor market is very bad, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in January will rise sharply.

▲XM Chart

From a technical perspective, at the daily level, EURUSD is in a long-term sideways shock, with an upper limit of 1.1828 and a lower limit of 1.1390 points. The latest market price is 1.1581, which is within the shock range. From September 17 to November 5, as the U.S. dollar index rebounded, EURUSD experienced a clear downward trend. However, the lowest point is only 1.1467, failing to touch the lower limit of 1.1390. The strength of the short side is still not enough to destroy the current shock structure. For the rebound trend from November 5 to the present, the first target is at the central area of the shock range, 1.1574~1.1669 points, followed by the upper limit of the shock range, 1.1828 points.

XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the personal views of analysts and does not constitute any operational advice. Please do not rely on this report as your sole reference. Analysts' views may change at different times and will be updated without notice.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Is it possible for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December?". It is carefully xmxyly.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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Is it possible that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December?

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

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CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

Is it possible that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December?

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason